traffic and revenue
495 Express Lanes went to financing in 2010 with boom-time forecasts from mid-decade - huge $-shortfall now
2013-10-10: The 495 Express Lanes went to the capital markets at the end of 2010 using the same traffic and revenue forecasting done four and five years earlier in the boom times of 2005 and 2006. Seeking $589m of 2047 senior lien 35-year bonds in mid-December 2010 we now know they based their financial plan on the same Stantec traffic and revenue forecasts published February 2007 and conducted in the pre-recession years 2005 and 2006.
2013-10-07: A report from Fitch Ratings titled "Global PPP Lessons Learned" says weak economic fundamentals with overestimation of traffic and revenue along with higher than expected costs are the major source of public private partnership (P3) failures worldwide. Other failures occur through vulnerability to departures from the "normal." But inability to service debt is most often due to disappointments about cash flow.
2013-04-01: The 130 tollroad down the east side of the 1.87m pop Austin TX metro area is seeing strong growth in traffic and revenues. In the first two months of the year traffic on the 49 mile, 79km TxDOT portion (segments 1 thru 4) is up 20% over last year despite higher toll rates.
CDM (formerly Wilbur) Smith continue to do the traffic and revenue work for the established toll facilities of North Texas Tollway Authority (NTTA) and full system forecasting. But C&M Associates get the new stuff - the Chisholm Trail and western extension of the President Geo Bush Turnpike are mentioned. Also apparently the Trinity Parkway, although that is not part of the announcement.
Improved traffic and revenue (T&R) forecasts are vital if toll roads (TRs) are to maintain the support of investors, says financial consultant Robert Bain. Writing in the Fall issue of TOLLWAYS, the IBTTA journal Bain says international investor confidence in traffic forecasts "is at an all time low."
With the majority leader of the state senate Mike Bishop saying there would be no vote on P3 enabling legislation needed for the new DRIC bridge in Detroit unless they got revenue forecasts, Michigan transportation secretary Kirk Steuble flipped this week, releasing the secret Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) forecasts.
The forecasts are that toll revenues will open in 2016 at $70m, rise to $124m by 2025 and by 2035 be $196m.