sydney

I didn't know whether to chuckle or cry in reading of John Goldberg's efforts to derive forecasts of corporate doom from regression analysis. It's just a lousy tool for the job. The mathematical basis of a regression analysis is that if the first three points are downward, the trend will ultimately be downward with dire predictions that are unwarranted.

Transurban has been systematically overstating its financial strength, hiding debt, paying dividends out of borrowing, making bad investments, and generally defrauding lenders and investors. And the big Melbourne Australia-based toiler, making heavy investments in toll lanes here in the Washington DC metro rate, is headed inexorably for bankruptcy, according to John Louis Goldberg, a retired government scientist/mathematician in Sydney, Australia.

Transurban is buying the Lane Cove Tunnel concession on the eastern end of their M2 Hills Motorway in the northern suburbs of Sydney. The company is paying A$630.5m (US$570m) for the twin tube tunnel 3.6km (2.25mi) toll facility that carries 63.5k vehicles/day. It has been in bankruptcy, operated by receivers for the lenders since January.

Sydney's first tollroad in the automobile era, the M4 heading west out of Sydney is no more. As of midnight Feb 15 the 20 year concession held by State Wide Roads expired, the road was turned over to the state of New South Wales (NSW), and toll collection ended.

An average of 100k vehicles use the six lane expressway each day.

CORRECTIONS

Wrong Swede