traffic & revenue study

Robert Bain, traffic & revenue consultant says he thinks he's found a new low in forecasting - a 77km tollroad in Malaysia linking the Desaru tourist area to Johor Baru. Traffic after opening in the fall of 2009 was just 1.9% of forecast by the end of the year. For the whole of 2010 traffic had risen to 8.3% of forecast, 91.7% below forecast.

The tollroad cost unfortunate investors RM1.37b, $439m.

The state auditor-general described the result as "unsatisfactory" and a "danger to users."

The Traffic Group out of Baltimore has had its people and traffic measuring gear out on the Dulles Toll Road in Northern Virginia. They are deploying the latest traffic radar units - Wavetronix HD with the RTMS G4 sensor - that cover several lanes and collect data and compile estimates of the traffic based on length of vehicles, average speed, and vehicle counts.

Request for Proposals (RFP) 5001572

INVESTMENT GRADE TRAFFIC AND REVENUE STUDY

A traffic and revenue report puts potential toll revenues on the proposed new Scudder Falls bridge near Trenton NJ - the subject of a P3 or private concession procurement - in the range of $22m and $35m/year. If operating costs are a quarter to a third of this then net revenues would be $16m to $24m/year. That's a 5% to 8% return on investment. Little growth is projected.

Maryland's proposed high toll rates for the new Inter County Connector are in line with those suggested by Wilbur Smith Associates to maximize revenues. Yesterday Maryland Transportation (Toll) Authority (MdTA) announced high toll rates in the range 25 to 35c/mile in the peak hours and 20c to 30c/mile offpeak for cars with a minimum 3-mile toll, and a $3/toll video surcharge.

The Greenville Southern Connector in South Carolina is getting an investment grade traffic and revenue study, and meanwhile the procurement of a concession is on hold. Peter Femia, general manager of the Connector 2000 Association a not-for-profit which operates the tollroad under a 50 year license from the state told us their financial advisers Goldman Sachs recommended the T&R study and other measures before the association pressed forward with the private concession.