Macquarie traffic in 2009Q1 continues decline, revenue not so bad

A Macquarie report to the Australian stock exchange shows traffic in the first quarter of 2009 continuing to decline quite seriously as compared to the previous corresponding period (pcp), 2008Q1. A crude unweighted average of their nine tollers suggests an average decline of 6% 2009Q1/2008Q1.

The group attribute the declines to the global slowdown in economic activity.

Revenue trends are both positive and negative - pretty much a wash on average - due to some significant toll increases.

Macquarie Infrastructure Group's (MIG) biggest toll property 407ETR in Toronto Canada (30% share), previously holding well is down 4.6% in vehicle-kilometers traveled on pcp. As has been the case in previous reports Indiana Toll Road is most severely affected with traffic down 11.7% as measured by transactions.

The group also reports the Indiana pike by a new metric Full Length Equivalent Trips (FLET) which is a weighted average of the longdistance ticket trips and the shorter barrier system trips. FLET is down 10.2%/pcp.

Other results in transaction numbers unless otherwise specified:

- Chicago Skyway down 2.0%.

- Dulles Greenway, Washington DC metro down 7.7%

- South Bay Expressway, San Diego California down 9.2%

- M6Toll Britain down 10.7%

- M7 Westlink Sydney Australia up 4.9% in vehicle-kms

- Warnow Tunnel Germany down 3.1%

(The French tollroad group APRR can't be reported until end-April due to French regulations.)

In the case of the Chicago Skyway they report that within the quarter traffic in March was above traffic of a year ago (up 1.6%), the first such increase since August 2007. Sydney's Westlink, only about two years old continues its strong 'ramp-up' growth (no Fannie/Freddie subprime economy-busters there).

Otherwise there isn't much good news.

South Bay Expressway (CA125) which opened around the same time as Sydney's Westlink and already below expectation is in ramp-DOWN. It's in prime foreclosure territory on the fringe of one of the most bubbled real estate markets in the US. The decline in Mexico-US trade and travel has also undercut South Bay Expressway traffic. SBE connects to the Otay Mesa border crossing.

M6Toll in Birmingham England has suffered from improvements tot he competing free motorway as well as the weak British economy and worse weather this year. Weekend and holiday traffic was down more than 14%. Weekday traffic was down 10.8%.

see http://www.macquarie.com.au/au/mig/news.htm?20090417_0

407ETR makes small profit in 2009Q1

Independently 407ETR released their full financial results for the March quarter today.

In Canadian dollars they essentially maintained their position versus the March quarter of 2008. Revenue was C$119.7m 2009Q1 vs C$120m 2008Q1. Slight reductions in operating expenses adn depreciation allowed them to generate a small increase in net income C$77m this year vs C$75m last year.

Interest expenses were down too, so they generated a small net profit C$8m vs a C$11.9m loss last year. For the first time they are paying Canadian corporate income tax. (C$1.00 is 82c US.)

TOLLROADSnews 2009-04-16