US traffic down 5.3% in November/PCP, 2008 heads for near-4% drop

US traffic was down strongly in November, in line with the experience of many toll operators. The office of highway policy information at FHWA estimates that travel on all US roads and streets in November 2008 was 5.3% lower than in the previous corresponding period (PCP), Nov 2007. 12.9 billion  or 3.7% fewer vehicle-miles were racked up in the eleven months to end-Nov 08 as compared to PCP.

The Nov drop from PCP is steepest in the west (6.4%) and in the south Atlantic (6.1%) but serious too in the mid-west (which FHWA perversely calls North Central - have you ever heard Chicago called the "heart of the North Central US"?) and the northeast (4.7%). The South Gulf so-called (mostly TX) is down 3.6% (see map nearby).

Nov 2008 saw 230.4b vehicle miles traveled (VMT) vs 243.3b in Nov 07, a decline of 12.9b. That's the 5.3% drop.

The Nov/PCP (-5.3%) was steeper than October (-3.5%)

A 12-month seasonally adjusted moving average dropped from 2907b to 2894b, by 13b or 0.45%. This was a larger decline than any since August. Going backward the drops were 9b (0.31%) in October, 12b (0.41%) in September, and 15b (0.51%) in August.

The data called Traffic Volume Trends are estimates based on traffic count data from 4000 loops operated by state transport agencies. They say that limited sample sizes and other statistical issues warrant caution in drawing conclusions.

see http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/08novtvt/08novtvt.pdf

The cumulative total for the year to end-Nov is put at 2656b.

The 12 month total VMT for 2008 seems likely to come in around 2885b vs 2996b, a drop of around 111b or 3.7% lower.  That would involve a December number of 229b, 3.8% below PCP. 

Our hunch is the December figure could well be about 234b, just 1.7% down.

That's because various reports from toll authorities are that December traffic showed some stabilization and even recovery on October and November numbers. The Pennsylvania Turnpike for example had December 2008 traffic slightly better than December 2007 after a run of months in 2008 several percent below PCP.

Rural travel overall is down a solid percentage point more than urban travel. Rural is about 4.5% down, urban 3.4%.

Vehicle miles traveled have been down on a year earlier since December 2007 when the economic recession began. The drop as accentuated in the spring of 2007 when motor fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) soared and they have stayed depressed since apparently because of the financial crisis and loss of economic confidence.

Toll road activity has more or less tracked that reported for all roads, perhaps being hit somewhat more on average.

Border crossing traffic US-Canada and California tollroads are especially hard hit. So is tourist-oriented Orlando.

TOLLROADSnews 2009-01-25