6% preference for gas tax over toll hike in Massachusetts - opinion poll

Proving the adage that all politics is local a new opinion poll in Massachusetts suggests greater public support for hiking the gasoline tax than tolls. Opinion surveys in other states and on a national basis have generally shown a  preference for tolls over taxes.  The survey cited is by Andrew E Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for the Boston Globe which first publicized it today (2008-12-21)

The question of greatest interest asked of about 500 people polled was:

"If you had to choose, would you rather raise the gas tax or increase tolls on the Massachusetts Turnpike?" and statewide this gets 48% saying raise the gas tax and 42% saying increase Turnpike tolls. Sampling error is put at +/- 4.4% so the result is just statistically significant.

The question was posed at a time when the Turnpike has got heavy negative publicity over:

- proposed doubling of tolls on Boston harbor tunnels and increases up to 50% at other toll points

see http://www.tollroadsnews.com/node/3836

- publicity for the high wages and benefits of Turnpike toll collectors (close to double average incomes)

- turmoil at the Massachusetts Turnpike with the resignation of the chairman and state transportation secretary Bernard Cohen following the toll proposals

- continuing Big Dig publicity

It is doubtful however there is any enthusaism for a gas tax increase.

The same sample of people asked "Would you favor or oppose increasing the state gas tax to pay for roads and bridges and other things like paying off Big Dig debt and reducing dependence on tolls?" this same sample of people say No 56% to 40% who support the idea.

Posed this way there is net opposition in all sections of the state - greatest in the far west of the state and diminishing as you move in to Boston. But even inside MA128 in Boston 50% oppose to 47% who support a higher gas tax to pay off Big Dig debt and reduce dependence on tolls.

But asked in the first question to choose between a gas tax increase and tolls there is a slightly different sectional split in the state.

Sectional split - country for tolls, city for gas taxes

As might be expected preference for the gas tax increase (and presumably the term 'gas tax' in common parlance includes a tax on diesel fuel as used by heavy trucks) is heavily concentrated in toll territory - notably in Boston called inside-MA128 (60/25) and in the suburbs called MA128 to I-495 (54/42).

There is clear opposition to the gas tax vs tolls in western Massachusetts (where car tolls have been abolished and only truck tolls remain) with 62% favoring the toll hike to 28% favoring the gas tax increase.

In Central Massachusetts, a mix of rural and suburbs where there has been no proposal for a toll increase, there is a slight majority for the toll hike over the gas tax increase (44/39) with a large undecided 17%.

Southern Massachusetts and the Cape, like the west of the state, also favor raising tolls over the gas tax by 58/38.

The margin goes to gas tax over tolls however because Boston and suburbs are over half of those polled, and presumably over half the population of the state.

There's an interesting gender split. Men favor an increase in the gas tax strongly over toll hikes (53/37) whereas women favor toll hikes 47% to gas tax raises 42%. There's little political party difference.

Poorer and younger favor tolls

The issue shows big income differences however. High income people overwhelmingly prefer higher gas taxes. People >$100k/yr are 65/31 split in favor of the gas tax over tolls. Low income people <$30k are about equally adamant the tolls should be raised (57%) rather than the gas tax (27%).

Increasing age sees greater support for the gas tax hike over tolls. 35-and-unders are toll hike supporters 59% to tax hikers 39%. 35 to 49 year age group members are evenly split. 50 to 64 and over 65s are for raising the gas tax over the tolls.

Regular travel mode affects preferences too. Public transport users, bikers, and walkers favor higher taxes over toll hikes by large margins. Regular car users favor the gas tax hike by a small margin over toll hikes (50/45). People who use a combination of modes favor toll hikes (44%) over the gas tax hike (26%).

Only 5c/gal

In response to the question: "Knowing that maintaining roads and bridges is very expensive, how much would you be willing to raise the gas tax per gallon ... 5 cents a gallon ... 10 cents a gallon ... 20 cents a gallon ... or 30 cents a gallon?" 47% said 5c/gal, 21% 10c, 6% 20c, 5% 30c and 18% none.

5c/gal would be about sufficient to take the Big Dig debt and operations off the back of the Turnpike and reduce the need for the huge toll increases recently proposed, but it wouldn't provide new money for other roads and bridges.

No enthusiasm to do anything...

The survey suggests there's no great public enthusiasm for doing anything about the state's transport problems.

On privatization there's 30% support to 56% opposition in response to the question: "Would you favor or oppose privatizing the Massachusetts Turnpike, that is, leasing the Massachusetts Turnpike and the Big Dig to a private company that would collect tolls in return for a large upfront payment so the state could retire the debt from the Big Dig?"

New highway tolls aren't popular at least not in Boston. The question "If you had to choose, would you rather raise the gas tax or add tolls on highways other than the Massachusetts Turnpike?" elicits 45% for a gas tax hike and 37% for new tolls statewide, but there is a large income and a sectional rift.

Lower income and less educated people for new highway tolls and higher income and better educated favor higher gas taxes. In western, central and southern Massachusetts there is also majority support for new toll points over gas tax hikes - the far west by 58% to 27%. But in Boston the gas tax hike wins hands down over new tolling 58% to 23%.

Abolishing tolls on the Turnpike with a 5c/mile charge on all highways using a vehicle registration sticker tag called "a computer chip in inspection stickers that would measure how much you drive" is strongly opposed 74% against to 19% in favor.

Questions about imposing tolls at the borders to maintain Massachusetts roads and bridges and to deal with Big Dig debt don't find favor either. The border tolls score net opposition 27% at I-93 NH, 20% on I-84 at CT.

No question asked about tolling Big Dig itself

There was, unfortunately, no question asked of people about tolls where tolls are obviously most needed, fairest and would yield the most revenue - in the heart of the Big Dig, on the southern approqaches, in the Tip O'Neill Tunnel in downtown Boston and at the Zakim Bridge on I-93.

Such tolls would be collected from motorists getting the most benefit from the Big Dig, from the people on whose behalf all that debt was incurred. They could be varied by time of day to manage traffic flows and get the highest toll from drivers getting the most time savings as compared to competing free routes.

Guess you can't expect a survey guy in New Hampshire to think of asking the most obvious question!

The survey did ask about other aspects of the Big Dig.

Overall 26% of people think it was worth the money spent on it, 65% say it wasn't.

Has Bid Dig helped?

20% of Massachusetts people say the Big Dig has reduced driving times, 65% say it has made no difference to their driving times, 10% don't drive or don't know, and perversely 5% say it has increased their driving times. In Boston 30% say it has reduced their driving times, and in the boston suburbs 24% of people, though 5% and 7% respectively say it has increased their driving times.

The failure to upgrade US1, MA-1A/16 and the northern part of I-93 while speeding traffic through the city center has apparently led to frustration north of the city, so perhaps it's not just the perpetual grouches reporting the longer drive times.

Asked who has benefitted most from the Big Dig the sample answered accurately: in the City 22%, from the North 16%, from the South 15%. And of course the solons of the state want Turnpike users who come from the West to pay for the Big Dig, so is it any wonder people there get cranky about the way roads are financed.

Nervous about the ceiling

The survey has 54% of people saying they are very or somewhat nervous in response to: "Considering the collapse of the tunnel ceiling in 2006 and leaks in the tunnel, how nervous would you say you are driving through the Big Dig ... very nervous ... somewhat nervous ... or not nervous at all?" But there's no sign in the traffic numbers that such "nervousness" has stopped people driving through there, so you have to wonder.

No wonder the British annoy - masters of the indirect insult

My mother who lived through the German Blitz and was bombed out of our house when I was 3 months old was quite indignant when asked some years later in Australia: "Weren't you afraid during the bombing." She replied I remember: "Certainly not. I'm British, you should know. We don't get afraid." Implying...

In Boston now the opposite is apparently the fashion - to say you're afraid even when your behavior shows you're obviously not afraid.

TOLLROADSnews 2008-12-21 COMPLETED 2008-12-22 15:30