North Texas Tollway lowers revenue forecast for 2009 by $25m or 7%

NTTA staff expect the economic crisis to drop revenue by $25m or 7% in 2009, according to a statement from the Dallas TX toll authority. Initial traffic and revenue projections for 2009 were made in July based on trends through the end of June. The past four months have seen a dramatic worsening of the economic outlook.

NTTA has not published the original July forecasts.

As a matter of normal arithmetic a drop of seven percent that is $25m has to be from $357m to $332m.

But these numbers seem high, and we haven't yet been able to check with the authority on Texan arithmetic.

Revenue has been rising rapidly at NTTA from higher toll rates (about 20% end-Sept 2007), strong regional population growth (around 2%), and new tollroad.

Revenue in 2007 according to the NTTA annual report was $211m.

A WSA traffic and revenue forecast in Oct 2007 put 2008 revenue at $269m and 2009 revenue at $323m (see nearby).

Economy measures

To help cope with lower projected revenue, NTTA Deputy Executive Director Rick Herrington directed departmental directors to reduce budgets, the statement says, quoting him:

“Organizations across the country, both public and private, are making adjustments as a result of the perilous economic conditions. However, by cutting the budget across the organization, we are able to keep major mobility projects on schedule, maintain customer service levels, and avoid layoffs.”

NTTA’s traffic and revenue consultant, Wilbur Smith and Associates (WSA), will be working - the statement says - with an independent economist to determine the near and longer term traffic and revenue impacts of the current economic slowdown.

Others

The 7 percent decline from forecast is perhaps a bit larger than other toll authorities are now predicting but not much out of line. In the New York area traffic and revenue is down 5% and similar drops have been reported in Ohio and West Virginia. In California traffic is down over 10%.

TOLLROADSnews 2008-12-05