September US traffic estimated lowest since 2001

Traffic on US roads in September at 232.8b VM (vehicle-miles) was down 4.4% (10.7b vehicle-miles less than 200709's 243.6b VM), the lowest September number since 2001 and down a full 5% from the 2006 Sept high of 245.1b VM. The 4.4% decline is somewhat smaller than the month-on-a-year-ago drop in August (-5.6%) but larger than that in July (-3.7%).

The 12-month moving average which smooths the monthly numbers to get a better trend line was down 3% (see graph nearby) and cumulative or year-to-date was down 3.5%.

The September traffic numbers coincide with the beginnings of the drop in the prices of gasoline and diesel fuels, but the bulk of that drop from the summer high of $4.00 occurred in october and November.  Of course the declining economy has taken over from high fuel prices as the big depressor of traffic.

Rural, longdistance traffic is down the most. Rural interstate travel was 19.4b VM 200809 vs 21.1b VM 200709, an 8% drop. For the September quarter the drop was 6.5%.   This is close to over half as much again as the drop on urban interstates and other urban arterials - about 4%.

Longdistance trucking, business and tourist/vacation driving all seem to be taking the biggest hit.

By region the September data on same month-a-year-ago show the largest drops in Florida and the southeast 5.7%, and Texas and nearby South Gulf states (5.2%). The north central centered on Illinois are down 4%, the west led by California is down 3.6% and the northeast is down 3.4%.

Funding for roads off

The US highway trust fund collected $31b in fuel revenues in the year to Sept 2008, about $3b less than last year while spending from the fund increased $2b!!!!

US sec transport Mary Peters says this is a reminder that the highway trust fund so-called is no longer a viable fund raising mechanism for roads.

The Congress has already had to supplement the trust fund with $8b this year and Peters says another shortfall could occur sooner than expected. 

She urges a fundamental change - a system of vehicle-mile charges or universal tolls.

""We can keep trying to patch our broken transportation policies, or we can embrace the kinds of changes needed..." she said in a  statement.

Patchy Obama policies

For now patches seem most likely, especially with President-elect Obama mentioning roads and bridges first in a list of of the targets of spending from his "stimulus" or Economic Recovery Plan: "We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing..." (Radio address 2008-11-22)

This sounds like funding roads and bridges not out of user fees but out of Uncle Sam's bailout monies, wherever they come from.

see http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtpage.cfm

also a must-see: Saturday Night Live on the financial crisis:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/10/snl-on-financial-rescue.html

TOLLROADSnews 2008-11-24