Dulles Toll Road unlikely to go to Airports Authority in wake of FTA 'No' to rail $s

In the wake of the Federal Transit Administration's 'No' to Virginia's request for federal funding for construction of the $5b Dulles Rail project, state officials are rethinking their plan to have the area's Airports Authority take over the Dulles Toll Road. This could open the way for resumption of the private sector concessioning that was interrupted by the MWAA intervention in 2006.

The involvement of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) was a one reason the FTA gave the thumbs down to providing some $1.48b of federal monies for the first stage of the project.

MWAA has a poor history of managing projects it knows - at the Dulles and National airports - and the Feds see real problems in this organization managing projects it doesn't know - construction of a railroad and operation of a tollroad. The FTA has criticized the MWAA financing plan as heavily backloaded and assuming "optimistic" growth of traffic and revenues on the Dulles Toll Road. Under the 50 year toll concession the Dulles Toll Road is envisaged as MWAA's major cash cow for servicing debt incurred to build the railroad.

The feds were also concerned at MWAA being in charge of design and construction of a facility which would then be operated by another authority again - the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA). From beginning of operations all responsibility for the Dulles Rail or Silver Line, including the financing of repairs and losses, would be with the transit authority. MWAA would get to wash their hands of the rail line the day it began taking passengers.

James Simpson, the FTA chief in his letter to the Virginia governor turning down the request for federal funds said use of the MWAA to design and build a facility to be operated by WMATA was a major concern. The feds think a project like Dulles Rail is liable to run into more problems if the people who will operate a facility aren't responsible for its design and construction.

Virginia officials are now considering proposing that the state's Department of Rail and Public Transportation and WMATA manage the project instead of the Airports Authority. This would put an end to moves to have the Dulles Toll Road transferred to MWAA from the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT).

Financial close on transfer of DTR to MWAA is blocked

The Washington Post has reported - most recently today in "The Dulles Death Knell" by Amy Gardner and Michael Lewis pC01 - that the Dulles Toll Road is already operated by the MWAA. Now. That's news to the VDOT staff out there. They are still getting VDOT pay checks.

VDOT and MWAA did sign two contracts a "Dulles Toll Road Permit and Operating Agreement" and a "Master Transfer Agreement Relating to the Dulles Toll Road and the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project" in December 2006. This provided for MWAA to take over the Dulles Toll Road for a 50 year term in return for financing the state and local share of Dulles Rail's capital costs.

But the contract states that the toll concession and transfer of the Toll Road goes into effect at financial closing. There has been no financing closing. There can't be.

Article VII Conditions Precedent to Closing lists a slew of conditions before financial closing including:

7.1 (a) (iii) on p16 Certification of the FTA of the Airports Authority as an eligible Grantee under a full funding grant agreement.

The FTA is not proceeding with any full funding grant agreement so the Dulles Toll Road cannot be transferred to the MWAA under the contract for that reason alone. A whole set of other required conditions have not been met either.

VDOT can easily disentangle itself from the concessioning of the Toll Road to the Airports Authority. The Master Agreement's Article XI Termination allows either party to terminate the toll concession and rail financing agreement if closing "has not occurred on or before December 31, 2007." [9.1 (d) p20]

Supporters express their "shock"

Backers of the $5 billion rail project are expressing "shock" at the denial of funds to the project, the Washington Post characterizing them as "stunned." They can't have been paying attention. Some months ago the USDOT's office of Inspector General said the project was ineligible for funding because of its poor cost-effectiveness rating. Also federal officials have been telling anyone who asks they think it's a boondoggle.

These guys expect the feds to fund a project they think is lousy, and which their lawyers say is ineligible anyway? People outside the Washington area would be shocked if they did fund such a project.

No alternatives they say - CRITIQUE

The project supporters are also claiming there are "no alternatives" to rail.

This is nonsense.

A superior alternative to rail to Dulles Airport and Loudoun County is a transitway - designed for a mix of transit buses, vans and taxis. This would cost a fraction of the rail project and provide superior service. Service would be door to door since the vehicles could originate from a variety of starting points offline and take travelers to the doorstep of their destinations at airport terminals, hotels or office parks. There would be much less need for shuttles and transfers.

Rail supporters say buses can't service the volumes expected in the corridor. The opposite is true. A single transitway lane each direction can service a multiple of expected train ridership - up to six trains per hour per direction, 8 cars/train or 48 rail cars x 100 people = 4,800 people/hour.

Rubber tired vehicles can operate at closer headways than trains and so can cater to large volumes. A single transitway lane with offline stops can handle about 2,000 automobile equivalents/lane/hour:

- 1,000 buses x 30 people = 30,000 people/hour (more than six times the train load)

- 100 buses (3,000 people), 400 vans (8 people each, 3,200 people), 1,000 taxis and other cars (2 people each, 2,000 people = total 8,200 people/hour (nearly twice the train load)

A fraction of one lane's capacity will provide the equivalent of the rail line's seats.

The frequency and speed of buses and vans on a dedicated transitway will provide better service. Train frequency depends on waiting on sufficient volume to congregate to more or less fill the train. Buses and vans will fill more quickly so more can be scheduled and wait times can be reduced.

Capital cost per seat in buses and vans is lower than rail cars because these are customer designed rather than off-the shelf.

Rail from Loudoun County and Dulles Airport to downtown DC is going to be miserably slow - because of the shuttle transfers needed at the ends and because of the twenty or so stops along the rail line. Speed in the transitway will be much faster because most 'stations' or 'stops' along the way can be bypassed by vehicles doing express trips. Rail needs four tracks to do express operation. Every Dulles train would tediously follow the next, stopping at every stop regardless of how few people need to get on and off.

Over half the traffic in the Dulles Corridor between the Airport and Tysons goes north or south on the Capital Beltway, not on toward 66 and downtown DC anyway. A transitway in the Dulles Corridor will have a better fit with metro area traffic patterns by being connected to the HOT or toll express lanes being built in the Beltway by Transurban and Fluor.

There is a case for a short Metrorail line from West Falls Church to Tysons. Tysons is unique. It has the concentration of jobs, commerce and apartments that justify connection to the region's Metrorail system and that 5km (3 mile) line is affordable. The rail terminus under Tysons could be a major intermodal interchange with the Beltway and Dulles Corridor.

West of Tysons travelers will be better and more economically served by a transitway supporting a mix of buses, vans and taxis. Rail would be an expensive folly that would leave a horrendous financial burden on Fairfax and Loudoun county taxpayers and Dulles Toll Road tollpayers. By contrast a transitway could be largely self-financing.

(Similar points were made in a Washington Post blog we posted today.)

TOLLROADSnews 2008-01-27