Feds say 'No Thanks' to invite to join $5 billion Dulles Rail boondoggle
Posted on Thu, 2008-01-24 18:24
The Feds have turned down the request from Virginia politicians for financial support for the controversial $5 billion Dulles Rail project proposed for the median of the Dulles Toll Road and Dulles
Greenway. US Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters told the Virginia governor Timothy Kaine and other northern Virginia politicians today in a meeting on Capitol Hill today. The thumbs down was formally announced in a four page letter to Gov Kaine by the head of the Federal Transit Administration James S Simpson.
see copy of FTA-Gov Kaine letter here: http://www.tollroadsnews.com/sites/default/files/FTA-GovVA.pdf
The letter says the project is ineligible for federal permits to move into Final Design because it is
rated only 'Medium-Low' in the FTA's review. The FTA has a slew of projects from elsewhere in the country seeking funding which are rated higher. Also FTA regulations rule out funding of projects rated lower than plain Medium. The Dulles project rates a Low on cost-effectiveness.
The state was asking the FTA for $1.48b, $900m in straight grant money and $580m as a heavily subordinated loan.
Simpson says the FTA finds worrisome the Virginia proposal to transfer control of the rail project and the Dulles Toll Road to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA). Gov Kane last year announced that the Dulles Toll Road would be granted a 50 year uncompeted toll concession to operate the Dulles Toll Road in return for the Airports Authority financing the state's share of joint federal-state funding.
Unrealistic assumptions about Toll Road traffic and revenue
The Simpson letter says MWAA's Dulles Toll Road financing plan is flawed since it contains:
- overoptimistic assumptions on traffic on the Toll Road, and consequently revenue growth
projections out of line with historical experience
- 'aggressive' financing through heavy backloading of debt
- major unfunded increases in costs for WMATA, the regional transit agency
Airports Authority novices at rail and DB
The choice of the Airports Authority (MWAA) to run the project raises eyebrows at the FTA. The
administrator notes that MWAA is "a first-time New Starts applicant that lacks experience" with rail projects and design-build contracts "raising serious questions about its ability to control project costs and schedule."
The Transit Administrator says nothing about the MWAA's complete lack of expertise in running a toll road - supposedly the basis for generating surplus revenues to be pledged in the bond markets as security for borrowings to cover the Airport Authority's financing of the loser rail line.
The FTA chief notes that the design-build (DB) contract for the first segment of Dulles Rail which would fizzle out in the median of the Toll Road midway between Tysons Corner and Dulles Airport is for $1.6b, the largest DB project proposed in the history of FTA programs.
Simpson also says there is a potential for conflict in the state's plan to have the Airports Authority finance and build the rail line while WMATA the transit agency would operate it. Design staff should report to the ultimate owner-operator WMATA, not to another authority because interagency conflicts are likely to plague the project.
The FTA chief says the agency has worked to advance a major transit project in the corridor but this one has been marred by:
- changes in mode (bus to rail)
- changes in sponsorship (VDOT to MWAA)
- a new terminus (deep in Loudoun County versus Dulles Airport)
- a dramatically escalating budget
- delays in developing the design-build contract
- local dissension over design (on whether the Tysons Corner portion should be elevated or underground)
- lawsuits
Writes Simpson: "...FTA believes that the Dulles Project in its current form would be unlikely to be completed on-time and within budget."
The airports authority might be able to overcome some of the issues raised by FTA, the administrator concedes, but "the sheer number and magnitude of the current Project's technical, financial and institutional risks and uncertainties are unprecedented."
Moreover, he concludes the project is "lacking transportation benefits commensurate with its costs."
COMMENT: Ever since the rail fanatics got ahold of this project it was doomed. It was initially planned as bus rapid transit - a far more economical and suitable way of providing transit service in the corridor, although unfortunately it was a hobbled-BRT, with the buses confined to operations in the bus lanes, like trains confined to rails.
There was a case to be made for the first few miles of the proposed rail line going westward from West Falls Church to Tysons Corner, which is a major concentration of business and workplaces. Connecting that center to the Metrorail network made sense.
But beyond Tysons Corner there are no concentrated traffic generators at all - it is auto-oriented development. There it makes sense to provide transit via buses and vans that can travel off their dedicated lanes into office parks and shopping centers and apartment complexes located away from the Dulles corridor.
The projected passenger loads on the rail line can be handled by a small share of the capacity of a single roadway lane, analysts found. Lanes managed for free flow could carry all the needed buses and vans and still have plenty of space for other vehicles.
A study by Bill Vincent and Gabriel Roth (TRB 2005) concluded: "Metrorail in the Dulles Corridor would cost at least 250 percent more per new transit trip generated than either a busway/BRT or ETL (express toll lanes) scenario that includes transit service. This takes resources away from other potential projects that could better serve the region. Fairfax County, the Commonwealth of Virginia, and the Federal Transit Administration should reconsider the current rail plan in favor of options that can provide equal or greater benefits at a lower cost."
TOLLROADSnews 2008-01-24
Greenway. US Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters told the Virginia governor Timothy Kaine and other northern Virginia politicians today in a meeting on Capitol Hill today. The thumbs down was formally announced in a four page letter to Gov Kaine by the head of the Federal Transit Administration James S Simpson.see copy of FTA-Gov Kaine letter here: http://www.tollroadsnews.com/sites/default/files/FTA-GovVA.pdf
The letter says the project is ineligible for federal permits to move into Final Design because it is
rated only 'Medium-Low' in the FTA's review. The FTA has a slew of projects from elsewhere in the country seeking funding which are rated higher. Also FTA regulations rule out funding of projects rated lower than plain Medium. The Dulles project rates a Low on cost-effectiveness. The state was asking the FTA for $1.48b, $900m in straight grant money and $580m as a heavily subordinated loan.
Simpson says the FTA finds worrisome the Virginia proposal to transfer control of the rail project and the Dulles Toll Road to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA). Gov Kane last year announced that the Dulles Toll Road would be granted a 50 year uncompeted toll concession to operate the Dulles Toll Road in return for the Airports Authority financing the state's share of joint federal-state funding.
Unrealistic assumptions about Toll Road traffic and revenue
The Simpson letter says MWAA's Dulles Toll Road financing plan is flawed since it contains:
- overoptimistic assumptions on traffic on the Toll Road, and consequently revenue growth
projections out of line with historical experience- 'aggressive' financing through heavy backloading of debt
- major unfunded increases in costs for WMATA, the regional transit agency
Airports Authority novices at rail and DB
The choice of the Airports Authority (MWAA) to run the project raises eyebrows at the FTA. The
administrator notes that MWAA is "a first-time New Starts applicant that lacks experience" with rail projects and design-build contracts "raising serious questions about its ability to control project costs and schedule."The Transit Administrator says nothing about the MWAA's complete lack of expertise in running a toll road - supposedly the basis for generating surplus revenues to be pledged in the bond markets as security for borrowings to cover the Airport Authority's financing of the loser rail line.
The FTA chief notes that the design-build (DB) contract for the first segment of Dulles Rail which would fizzle out in the median of the Toll Road midway between Tysons Corner and Dulles Airport is for $1.6b, the largest DB project proposed in the history of FTA programs.
Simpson also says there is a potential for conflict in the state's plan to have the Airports Authority finance and build the rail line while WMATA the transit agency would operate it. Design staff should report to the ultimate owner-operator WMATA, not to another authority because interagency conflicts are likely to plague the project.
The FTA chief says the agency has worked to advance a major transit project in the corridor but this one has been marred by:
- changes in mode (bus to rail)
- changes in sponsorship (VDOT to MWAA)
- a new terminus (deep in Loudoun County versus Dulles Airport)
- a dramatically escalating budget
- delays in developing the design-build contract
- local dissension over design (on whether the Tysons Corner portion should be elevated or underground)
- lawsuits
Writes Simpson: "...FTA believes that the Dulles Project in its current form would be unlikely to be completed on-time and within budget."
The airports authority might be able to overcome some of the issues raised by FTA, the administrator concedes, but "the sheer number and magnitude of the current Project's technical, financial and institutional risks and uncertainties are unprecedented."
Moreover, he concludes the project is "lacking transportation benefits commensurate with its costs."
COMMENT: Ever since the rail fanatics got ahold of this project it was doomed. It was initially planned as bus rapid transit - a far more economical and suitable way of providing transit service in the corridor, although unfortunately it was a hobbled-BRT, with the buses confined to operations in the bus lanes, like trains confined to rails.
There was a case to be made for the first few miles of the proposed rail line going westward from West Falls Church to Tysons Corner, which is a major concentration of business and workplaces. Connecting that center to the Metrorail network made sense.
But beyond Tysons Corner there are no concentrated traffic generators at all - it is auto-oriented development. There it makes sense to provide transit via buses and vans that can travel off their dedicated lanes into office parks and shopping centers and apartment complexes located away from the Dulles corridor.
The projected passenger loads on the rail line can be handled by a small share of the capacity of a single roadway lane, analysts found. Lanes managed for free flow could carry all the needed buses and vans and still have plenty of space for other vehicles.
A study by Bill Vincent and Gabriel Roth (TRB 2005) concluded: "Metrorail in the Dulles Corridor would cost at least 250 percent more per new transit trip generated than either a busway/BRT or ETL (express toll lanes) scenario that includes transit service. This takes resources away from other potential projects that could better serve the region. Fairfax County, the Commonwealth of Virginia, and the Federal Transit Administration should reconsider the current rail plan in favor of options that can provide equal or greater benefits at a lower cost."
TOLLROADSnews 2008-01-24
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| FTA-GovVA.pdf | 189.3 KB |