LOCAL BALLOTS Most transit rejected by voters

LOCAL BALLOTS

Most transit rejected by voters

A majority of US voters recognize that fancy rail transit systems proposed by governments are likely to cost them much more than they are worth. More often than not the voters reject transit proposals when they are put on the ballot. In recent ballots the score has been 4/1 against transit, even though in every case the losers have run expensive campaigns and the opponents have been poorly organized and funded.

A proposal to build100 miles of light rail and commuter rail was defeated in the Denver area 58% against to 42% in favor in the 4 Nov elections. A local sales tax was proposed to pay the subsidies needed to fund the system. The defeat came despite $600k spent arguing for the case compared with $40k spent against it.

St Louis’ light rail from the airport to the downtown is touted by transit enthusiasts as a success and a model, largely because it has exceeded forecast passenger numbers. But the locals are not so enthused. Its patrons don’t pay half its operating costs let alone make a return on capital. A transit sales tax issue to add on to St. Louis light rail line was defeated in separate city and county elections, the overall split being 56/44. The ‘Yes’ crowd spent nearly $1m, the Noes $500! Money doesn’t always talk in elections!

A proposal to build light rail in Phoenix and expand bus

service was defeated by a narrow margin in a Sept 9 election, after all the local heavy guns favored the transit proposal.

Wendell Cox a transport policy consultant now in the St Louis area says that the public is cottoning onto the sad record of overselling of transit by public officials. He himself was a member of the Los Angeles County Transp Comm for 8 years and witnessed grossly low cost estimates being used to launch the LA Blue Line, then the unravelling of those estimates as construction proceeded, repeated efforts to gain increased tax money, scalebacks of the project, and then sacrifice of bus service to find money to feed the voracious new baby-rail. The end result was fewer people using a much poorer but vastly more expensive transit system, he says. The record of rail transit is one of fanciful promises, to hook key leaders and voters, failure to deliver, then disillusionment.

Seattle monorail win: The one recent victory for “transit” was the 55/45 win for what was called a “monorail” initiative in Seattle WA, following last year’s support for a $3.9b 10-yr plan for a mix of rail, HOV and bus. One benefit of that dangerously expensive plan may be studies which are showing the minor relief even optimistic transit projections will have on highway demand. And there is interest in tolls there if only as a way to fund transit, and introduce congestion pricing. Interestingly the monorail vote can be seen as a rebuff to the establishment, which is engaged in studies of expensive rail. The “monorail” initiative was so-named though in fact it merely specified electric propulsion on elevated guideway and use of rubber tires. It was opposed by the regular transit crowd, perhaps as a distraction from the implementation of their conventional rail plans. The monorail group emphasized that the new technology should be self-financing, and hopefully this was a factor in the popularity of the proposal with the voters. It is a modest scheme operating within Seattle City limits in the form of an X-plan with two lines crossing in the center of Seattle.

Whereas conventional transit deserves to be treated with disdain because of its inability to get anywhere near recovering its cost from users and its complete failure to deliver on promises of relieving congestion, any technology that is designed around financial self-sufficiency and avoids the vast rail staffs of drivers and station attendants deserves respect and encouragement.

Larry Fabian an expert on automated transport systems says he is not sure whether the Seattle project will go anywhere. The supporters of the proposal apparently have in mind something like the Matra automated people mover system in Lille France where narrow bus-sized driverless vehicles move under automated control between unmanned small stations at headways of about 90 seconds. It more than covers its operating costs. We have a score of similar technology systems in the US at major airports and theme parks. Also these people-movers run as small downtown distributors in Miami, Detroit and Jacksonville FL. The airport ones seem to work fine and get good use, though of course they don’t charge fares. They are maintained by the airports. The downtown people movers simply don’t attract anywhere near enough passengers to justify themselves.

Fabian thinks that a lighter system with taxi-cab sized vehicles generally makes more sense than transit deriviatives. Raytheon Corp is developing such a Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) system for the Chicago regional transit authority as feeders to transit and circulators in new conference center, shopping and office complexes. Others have suggested that these guideways could be dual mode, so that vehicles could be driven under normal control to the guideway, and would then join the system for the “line haul” part of the journey, departing at the other end under driver control again. That of course approaches the idea of the automated highway system, except of course that the AHS uses electronic guidance whereas the PRT’s use some kind of mechanical guidance. Raytheon sees the need to sell a number of closed PRT systems with dedicated vehicles for use on guideways around airports and other densely populated centers, before examining open systems that could accomodate privately owned vehicles entering and leaving. The idea seems more saleable than AHS which so far has no takers at all. Raytheon has emphasized the need to make the system financeable with fares and has at least one keen customer which has plonked down its money, and a bunch of other interested ones. (Contact Larry Fabian TransitPulse 617 825 2318 LFabian@compuserve.com Dick Falkenbury 206 527-1930 www.monorail org, Wednell Cox 618 632 8507 www.publicpurpose.com

http://www.monorail org, Dan Kelly Raytheon 508 490 2657)