Brookings’ Tony Downs: “Transit Subsidies Futile”

Anthony Downs a veteran transp analyst at the Brookings Inst in Washington DC told a recent GAO sponsored conference that both ‘smart growth’ and transit solutions to traffic congestion are certain to fail. He called local growth limits a “total delusion.”

“Privately owned automotive vehicles will remain the dominant form of ground transport for the foreseeable future in the US. Attempts to cope with rising traffic congestion by shifting more people to public transit are not going to work. The automobile is, and will remain, a better form of movement for most people in spite of congestion. It’s faster, safer, more comfortable, more flexible in timing, and in linking scattered origins and destinations... It will not be possible to lure any significant portion of auto-driving persons into using public transit by improving the quality, quantity or service frequency. One reason is that such a low percentage of all trips is now taken by public transit – only 3.5% of work trips in 1995... Therefore even if we could triple the percentage of those using public transit – which is extremely unlikely that... reduction would be offset by the increase in population which is going to be much larger...

“Apologists for public transit say we need more subsidies... They should look at one number... Transit gets 25% of public spending on transport in the US at all levels and provides between one and two percent of all trips. That’s a fairly impressive subsidy.”