Alt/transp in DC

Washington DC continues to be the primary source of anti-roads pressure, via clean air regulations, so-called smart growth and livability initiatives and funding of ‘alternative transport’ (alt/transp). The national capital has seen massive spending on alt/transp in the form of the $11b Metrorail system and a bunch of commuter rail. But if you thought all this costly alt/transp banished sprawl, revived the center city, and got guys out of their cars... Furrrgeddid. A fantasy of the Gorists!

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Govs has just published the latest “Beltway Cordon Count” which measures rush-hour trips across the Beltway. 1982 to 1998 there has indeed been a major expansion of rail trips from barely 3k to 50k (this and all following numbers are on a similar 6:30 to 9:30am basis) but this has been partly at the expense of bus which has declined from 24k to 13k. Now we know that the auto is king outisde the Washington beltway but it is king inside as well. While it has increased less rapidly than transit auto usage is so dominant the smaller proportional increase represents a larger absolute increase than transit. Auto trips across

the cordon have gone from 329k to 446k, an increase of 115k compared to transit’s 36k increase. Overall transit usage has gone from 8% to 12% to achieve that 4% point increase in transit’s mode share. But it isn’t mode share that affects conditions on the roads but the ratio of increased road traffic to road capacity, however much the Gorists will tell people to the contrary.

Interestingly trips over the Beltway cordon have stabilized in the past six years. 1992-98 have seen continued substitution of rail for bus but their total mode share has remained stable at 12% and the count stable in the 61k to 63k range. Car trips remain at 88% and 445k.

Inside the Beltway small job growth in northern VA and Bethesda MD more or less matches job decline in DC. Jobs and pop decline in DC steadily about 1%/yr. And who is moving out of center city? Those very guys who preach at the rest of the country about the need to avoid such behavior, of course. Federal government jobs in the center of DC decreased a full 9% 1994-97. Job and population growth in the Washington metro area are now heavily related to the area’s concentration of biotech, telecom and internet based businesses. These businesses focus is to be adjacent to Dulles or Baltimore airports and the main highways which means that virtually all the action in the region is now outside the Beltway. The centrally oriented rail system is increasingly irrelevant to the region’s transport needs. (www.mwcog.org)