NEW PIKE:Orlando Western Beltway Abuilding

Plans are to extend FL429 another 37km southward around the western side of the theme parks such as Disney World to join I-4 well inside Osceola Co. And there is a Northwest Arterial on the books which could connect to the FL417 Central Florida Greeneway to make a total beltway system around the area eventually. Like most such fringe area highways this one is intended both to support future development and will depend upon it for its revenues.

OOCEA in the prospectus for its $227m bond sale this summer hardly mentioned the 37km FL T’pike to I-4 future section of the Western Beltway at its southern end, or the NW Arterial at its northern end. The accompanying traffic and revenue (T&R) study (by Vollmer Assoc) looks at the ability of the whole OOCEA system to support the 17km under construction in the northwest, because the system revenues are pledged to support it.

The new road will neatly connect residents in the northwest to the motorway network of the whole area and provide much improved trip times north-south and to the airport and theme parks area. But trips to the central business district may not be much faster via FL429 than taking the more direct existing US441 arterial or roads due east to the northern section of I-4. Moreover a planned Apopka Bypass will improve travel times to the center and east of the region.

At the northern end Planning Area 7 which will be most advantaged by the new road has only about 60k pop but this is projected to be 100k by 2020. Plg Area 12 which will also benefit from road has 210k pop now and is projected at 290k by 2020. On opening in 2000 the road is projected to run daily volumes in various segments ranging between 10k and 19k, rising to 13k to 26k by 2020. A lot of single leg (on one IC, off the next) trips are projected. The projected numbers on the toll road amount to 15% falling to 13% of total estimated traffic in the corridor.

10c/mile

The toll road will open with just two intermediate interchanges (ICs) with ramp plazas, plus a mainline plaza - and of course ICs at each end. A third IC is provided for later. Tolls will be set initially at 25c, 50c and $1.00 for trips of approx 2.5mi, 5mi and 10mi making the toll rate a round 10c/mi (6c/km). Toll revenues are predicted by Vollmer as growing from less than $4m in the first year to $8m in 2004 to $17m in 2020. Interestingly they include what is called a ramp-up adjustment factor for years 1,2 and 3 - 0.61, 0.81 and 0.96. Vollmer have multiplied their raw projections of revenue by these factors in order to produce ramp-up adjusted gross tolls. Operations and maintenance will go from $1.8m on opening to $4.4m in 2020, so the surplus as return on capital/debt service will grow from $2m to $13m.

Given that the road will cost some $240m, for it to be yielding just 5% on capital (13/240) after 20 years is hardly the kind of investment the private sector would look at! Of course if the 37km planned southern stage of the Beltway down to I-4 and the NW Arterial were factored in then this first stage might look much better by 2020.

The bonds sold easily (through Paine Webber) because the OOCEA system as a whole seems very solid. Its traffic has been growing at double digit annual rates, and its operations are almost entirely contracted out and economically obtained. Moreover for the FL429 it managed to get about a third of the cost in donated land and grants and it has an agreement with the county to pledge some gas tax revenue against any shortfall in tolls for debt service.

The mainline plaza on the FL429 will provide for a couple of lanes of highway speed electronic tolling (ET) and it could be the first of its kind in Florida.

CONTEXT: Orlando is perhaps the most heavily tollroaded city in America, perhaps in the world. About two-thirds or 700 lane-km (440 lane-mi) of the area’s 1150 motorway lane-km are tolled. With a population of about 1.3m it has the state’s Florida Turnpike mainline running SE/NW through its center and 126km (79mi) in three OOCEA toll roads that form three east-west and another north-south thoroughfare (one is L-shaped). The only untolled motorway standard road is the I-4 which trends SW/NE. The city also has an excellent system of signalized arterials. By our estimate its motorway equivalent lane-km/pop rank it 14th in terms of the generosity of its highway laneage. In line with that its TTI-estimated congestion index of only 0.91 ranks it 51st out of 70 US cities in the intensity of its traffic problem.

With such mild congestion it is tough to make big bucks on tolls. (Contact Steve Pustelnyk OOCEA 407 425 8606)