COMPETITION:91X bounces back

Caltrans Joe El Harake tells us 91 traffic on the stretch west of the interchange with the Eastern has rebuilt quickly. El Harake is the state agency’s liaison with the toll roads in Orange Co. He says that while 91X lost a substantial fration of its traffic immediately the Eastern opened by the end of November it was back to 90% of pre-Eastern volumes.

“You can’t tell the difference on 91 (between before the Eastern and after) by looking. You have to go to counts to find it out, it’s so small,” El Harake says.

Business on 91X is down about 10 percent. That would make their average daily toll traffic 27k compared to about 30k.

“They are very happy. I just came from talking to them,” the Caltrans official told us of CPTC, the private sector operators of 91X.

El Harake himself guessed beforehand that traffic on 91X could drop as much as a third for several months after the opening of the Eastern Toll Road, but he said the thought after six months most of the losses would be regained because of deep latent demand.

We thought they might lose at least a third and that it might take them a year or more to get traffic back. The evidence to date suggests the pessimists were wrong.

No counts yet

Joe El Harake says he doesn’t have good traffic counts yet but he thinks that (1) the strong California economy, (2) diversion from alternate routes and (3) extra tripmaking, account for the way traffic on 91X has rebounded. In particular he thinks the Eastern freed up 91 which in turn attracted traffic off 60 and 57 to the north. For the rest he guesses that people who avoided making trips during the long rush hours have started making those trips.

The Eastern is now a more convenient direct route for traffic between the residential eastern suburbs of San Bernardino and Riverview counties traveling to jobs and commercial attractions in central and southern Orange Co than the combination 91/55 they traveled before. The Eastern will likely consolidate its hold on that traffic when the western leg of that h-shaped pike opens in a few months time, providing the most direct run toward the John Wayne airport, UC Irvine and nearby commercial centers. But 91X retains a lock on Riverside Co traffic heading into Los Angeles county.

91X’s variable pricing may give it an edge over the Eastern’s fixed price toll schedule. Only at the peak of the peak is the Eastern cheaper. The rest of the time 91X is less expensive. (Contact: Joe El Harake 949 724 2373)