Will 407 end congestion

The 5 million people of the greater Toronto area are spread out more or less continuously about 100km east-west from the port area of Hamilton at the far western end of Lake Ontario to Durham east of Toronto city. Dense settlement goes about 20km north of the lakeshore over much of this distance but there are fingers of more or less continuous development going 40km northward.

Toronto is a Euro-American city. That’s a way of saying that it’s somewhere midway between most comparably sized US and major European cities in its dependence on the motor vehicle and on urban motorways. It has well-established underground and commuter rail systems and a sparkling, apparently prosperous central business area by the lakefront, and nicely preserved inner-area housing. In that respect it is rather European.

Road wars built 401 not city: The highway “wars” of the late 1960s and 1970s saw two proposed urban motorway projects, the Spadina and Scarborough expressways stopped, so the central business area is awkward to get to by road from the immediate north, northwest and east. The only motorway connection in from the airport is to execute an ‘L’ south to the lakeshore, then east, where you have to join heavy road traffic from Hamilton (and NY state) via the Queen Elizabeth Way which becomes the Gardiner Expwy. From the northeast there’s the Don Valley Parkway/H-404. That’s about it for limited access/grade separated roadway to the CBD. For a 5 million pop metroplis it’s a very modest network compared to similar sized US cities. Green/NIMBY groups won most of the great highway wars of the 60s and 70s!

The killing of urban motorways did encourage a lot of the commuters to the central city to use rail rather than cars because the roads are so congested. In that respect the greens got what they wanted, at least short-term. However the creeping traffic conditions around the central business district accelerated the creation of new business districts outside the city of Toronto in office parks and commercial areas all around in York and North York, Markham, Etobicoke, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Peel, Halton, Burlington and Hamilton. Only 25 years ago Pearson Internat Airport was on the northwestern fringe of the developed Toronto area and Mississauga was on the western fringe. Now they are closer to the center of economic gravity of the metropolis than the shiny skyscrapers and the famous CN TV tower downtown that is the city’s landmark. By choking off the traffic to the central business district the conservationists conserved the CBD and central area but also made it, not so much irrelevant, as of increasingly narrow specialization and of steadily decreasing economic importance. So for several years now the prized transit system of Toronto has been losing patronage, as jobs move beyond its reach toward where there’s highway access. The result of isolating the CBD by road was that new industry and the economy of the region just grew where there was highway access because it is highways that are essential to modern industry and commerce, and transit however good simply isn’t a complete substitute for modern motor vehicle accessibility.

H-401: Greater Toronto has grown along Highway 401, a motorway built in the early 1960s as a supposed “bypass” of Toronto. 401 has become instead of a bypass the modern day Main Street of the metropolis, the great east-west distributor, because it is the only continuous modern highway east-to-west. Development has also occurred along various north-south mwy spurs off 401, mwys numbered from west to east 410, 427, 400, 404.

401 is one of the widest motorways in the world with four roadways (carriageways), and 14-lanes

(4/3/3/4 and 3/4/4/3) over 20.5km and 12-lanes over 28.7km. In the US only the cross-section of the New Jersey Turnpike, Atlanta’s I-75/85, and I-5 in El Toro California are comparable and in Buenos Aires there is the recently built toll road of Autopistas del Sol with 18-lanes (3/6/6/3) but all these monsters are a lot shorter than the near 50km of 401’s 12 and 14- lanes. In its busiest 14-lane stretch 401 carries an average 375k veh/day, the highest flow in North America if not the world. This is probably at least 100k veh/day more than it could carry in free flow conditions. (The NJ Turnpike with the same 14-lane configuration carries about half the daily traffic of 401) One study suggested the Toronto area suffers $1.4b in annual economic losses from the stop&go of the area’s highways, of which 401’s overloading is a major part and the most potent symbol in the minds of the locals. This congestion has been the political driver of 407.

Yet if the success of 407 is to be judged by its ability to free up 401, it should be declared a failure before it opens. It won’t do that. Most of it is too far away —- 6km to 8km north of it. 407’s eastern connections back onto 401 are too poor to make it worthwhile as a bypass for long distance traffic. OTCC chief Dennis Galange told us noone is happy with the eastern end and says he’s working on better connections so that it will be able to function better to attract a share of H-401 traffic.. At its western end where work is due for completion in 1998 407 will merge with and cross H-401 and there it could have some positive impact on the congestion on horror highway 401.

Ali Mekky chief traffic forecaster in the Ontario Ministry of Transport estimates that 407 will reduce traffic on H-401 by 12,000 vehicles/day — less than 3% — over the long stretch where they run parallel but over 6km apart. And Mekky says the 3% or so will occur only after 1998 when the full 69km of present construction is finished. (A central section of 36km is opening now.)

“Will hardly notice”: “People on 401 will hardly notice it (the effect of 407) because the reduction will be lost in the statistical noise. You get 3 percent or more variations day to day, season to season. It (401) won’t look or feel much different at all,” says Mekky. The big impact of 407 should be on the crowded 6-lane signalized arterials near 407, and especially Highway-7 which runs right alongside it for part of its length. Mekky estimates that 407 could cut traffic on H-7 by a third. The province’s forecaster says that 407 might have helped 401 a bit more at the western end now under construction if this section were being built to 6-lanes. For economic reasons it is being built 4-lanes (though with a wide median for easy expansion) and Mekky says this will reduce the time-saving offered and the attractiveness of the new toll road.

Dennis Galange the president of ITCC was quite candid in telling us he has no idea how successful the highway will be in its early years but he says the financing is being structured so that if traffic numbers come in low early they can make it through to future years in which traffic is more certain. Galange told us his best guess is that his average daily traffic flow at the busiest section (between 427 and 400) on 407 will be in the mid-30s and that by the end of 1999 it will be 55k, and by 2006 85 to 90k. At those modest numbers the 6-lane sections at least will be a joy to drive compared to Toronto’s crowded free roads! But the highway seems likely to carry so many short trips that busy point flows don’t say much about its revenue potential.

Forecaster Ali Mekky says the toll rate effects are “very dramatic, especially in the early years.” The 10c/km toll chosen for rush hours will only attract about half the traffic of a free road in the same location, he says, and that’s in 1998. But over the years tolled 407 will suffer less loss from its toll rate as overall congestion increases on parallel roads.

Short-hops: Mekky’s modelling shows that the mean trip length on the 69km-long 407 will be about 12km, and the median trip 10km. His modelling shows three-quarters of trips will be less than 16km and only one percent greater than 38km. It is going to be used for lots of short jogs east-west in trips that have north-south components as well. A mean trip on 407 at 100km/hr will take 7 minutes whereas the same trip via the existing arterials and their signalled intersections at an average 60km/hr will take about 12 mins - a 5 minute saving. The toll rates for cars have been set at 10c/km in rush hours, 7c/km weekday non-rush and weekend and holiday daytime rates and 4c/km nightimes (all Canadian cents which are 0.7cUS). The question is whether Torontans will pay C$1.20 to save 5 minutes. It seems quite a lot!

Mekky says that these numbers are for average trips in ideal circumstances. Any incident on H-401, snow and even heavy rain and the time savings using 407 will “be much higher,” says Mekky. So the highway will be an especially important backup or alternative route to many people.

This suggests that 407 may have some of the characteristics of 91-Express Lanes in California where more people value the toll express facility for its availability as an alternative quick-route when they are running late or when there are incidents elsewhere, than use it for regular everyday travel.

OTCC officials concede they are having less success signing up commerical users than commuters and other individuals. Mekky has forecast that by 2001 in the am peak H-401 is likely to be handling 106k trips or 1.1m veh-km and that 407 will do 38k trips and 443,000 veh-kms. If that were to constitute 45% of 407’s daily revenues, it would be grossing about $25m. Certainly enough to cover reasonable operating costs but unlikely to cover debt service on the $650m construction cost.

In part, the finances of 407 are at the mercy of the municipalities that now control the competing H-7. If they continue to manage it as a through road my guess is 407 may have trouble with its toll rates. If however the municipalities manage the signals of H-7 with less green time for through traffic and more green for cross and turning traffic, then the time savings on 407 will be greater, and it will be more competitive.

Galange the OTCC chief says the toll rates like other aspects of operation will be subject to modification in response to traffic, costs and other factors. The road is being run toll-free for an introductory period to let people get to know it and to try out the systems.