UPDATE SJ Hills traffic low but growing

UPDATE

SJ Hills traffic low but growing

The San Joaquin Hills Corridor (SJH) turnpike in Orange Co CA is gradually building ridership but is below forecast. As of mid-Feb it was running just 50,000 vehicles average on weekdays and a daily average of 44.6kv/d including weekends. This is a gain of about 15% since the beginning of toll collection Nov 25 when it was running 44kv/d weekdays and just under 40kv/d overall.

In bond financing documents the SJH developer Transportation Corridors Agencies (TCA), a joint powers agency of 11 local municipalities, showed forecasts of daily traffic for the first full year as 75kv/d and it will need continued strong month by month growth in order to match that number. The 'Orange County Register' reported that the TCA promised traffic of 87.5k on opening. A spokesman was quoted as saying that traffic is growing 2 to 3%/week (which seems exaggerated).

25% to 33% low: By my calculation the road is running 40% less daily traffic than forecast to be the average for the first full year and the growth has been about 5%/month. If that growth continues through the whole year the road would do average daily traffic for the year in the range 50k to 55k, a quarter to a third below projections, disappointing but not a disaster. There may be cause for concern longer term in the huge widening being done by Caltrans at taxpayers' expense of competitive I-5 which is going from 8 and 10-lanes to 12 and 14-lanes and the expansion of capacity at the 'El-Toro Y' interchange with I-405. This is eerily reminiscent of the behavior of Virginia DoT which has undercut the Dulles Greenway by widening competitive VA-7 from 4-lanes to 6-lanes following the completion of the toll road. Free-flowing, free competitive roads will kill any toll road!

The authority hopes improved signage planned for the approaches may help attract a bit more custom. It is also replacing toll plaza signs which have proved difficult to see in foggy conditions, and doing extensive landscaping and minor modifications to roadsways — using a contingency fund that contains $30m. At one plaza neighbors are complaining about the brightness of flood lighting and a wall is to be built.

E-tags short: The TCA was short on electronic transponders (e-tags) for the first two months but the backlog was eliminated by end-Feb. An average of 300 requests for e-tags are being received each day, we were told. About 40,000 e-tags have been issued at the SJH but another 40k are in use at the TCA's first toll road to the east and these together with e-tags on the investor-owned 91-Express to the north can be used on the SJH. Overall e-toll collection represented 38% of total toll transactions by mid-Feb, and since this is mainly a commuter road there would seem to be an opportunity to build the electronic fraction further. The road has been running smoothly and received good media coverage. It has had a couple of run-off-the-road accidents in slippery conditions but no serious injury accident yet.

The 24km, 6-lane, 10-interchange road is in the far south of the greater Los Angeles area and extends south from the end of the stub I-73 freeway near John Wayne airport in the Costa Mesa/Newport Beach area to an interchange with I-5 at San Juan Capistrano. It provides an alternative to I-5 and I-405 freeways which converge mid-county and carry over 300kv/d. SJH also provides a more direct connection between the LA freeway grid and surface arterials for about 300,000 'south county' residents in hilly oceanside suburbs.

Officially named SR-73 the road cost was $800m. The traffic forecast for 2010 was 120kv/d. The roadway has a 27m free median for expansion to a max 12-lanes, the present width of competitive I-5 located mostly parallel 10 to 15km away.

(See also TR#5 July 95 p1; TR#10 Dec 96. Contacts TCA tel 714 513 3444, www.tcagencies.com)