Truck tolls and US recession

Truck tolls & U.S. recession

For an example of airhead forecasting noone could beat a paper by Gerald Nielsten, Vollmer Assoc, at IBTTA in Rome predicting a fullblown U.S. economic recession on the basis of flat truck toll receipts on the northeastern turnpikes, which overlooks (1) the U.S. is predominantly a service not a manufacturing economy (2) the NE is less than a quarter of that economy (3) trucking in the NE has been hit by diversion of shipping to ports in the south, the west and Canada (4) the completion of new higher clearance rail routes (allowing double-highs) Ontario-Michigan and through Pennsylvania has made rail more competitive. This guy was involved in Dulles Greenway forecasts!!! (He won't take or return my phone calls.)