Pennsylvanians rather evenly divided on privatization of Turnpike

If you believe the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission (PTC) then the people of the state are overwhelmingly on their side in opposing the end of the Commission as a public toll authority and their replacement by a private concessionaire. The poll on the Commission's website (http://www.paturnpike.com/ppp/) shows 91.5% No to only 7.8% Yes to the Governor being given the authority to seek bids for the lease/sale of the Turnpike.

That's 12 to 1 Brimmeier/Rendell.

All the editorials and articles on the subject published by the Turnpike think Gov Rendell's plan is nutty too. And there are scores of them. The only other opinion poll they give any play is a survey supposedly commissioned by the Pennsylvania Motor Truck Association (PMTA) which according to the trucking group found "two-thirds" of Pennsylvanians opposed to the Governor's proposal.

That's Brimmeier/Rendell 2 to 1.

Bogus truckers poll (see LATE NOTE below Jun 2)

Neither the truckers nor their supposed pollsters would release details of the poll. Who was polled? What question was asked? What was the lead in? We asked them. They won't say.

A clue is the accompanying statement by PMTA president Jim Runk that toll increases would be greater and maintenance less with private investors and that "(a)t the end of the day Pennsylvanians would have to repay this loan." (Which "loan" this was Runk didn't say.)

Based on those opinions it is hardly surprising any people interviewed were against privatization. Also the so-called "poll" for the PMTA was done before the Governor's proposals were detailed.

The Governor's plan shows the exact reverse of Runk's claim: $8.2b less tolls through 2036 under a concession than under a Turnpike Commission plan, toll increases limited in the contract to inflation or GDP/person.

Muhlenberg College poll

Another poll released earlier this week by the LeHigh Valley Morning Call newspaper was not so obviously biased though it was also taken before the Governor's proposal and its lower toll rates under a concession were disseminated. This by Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion of Allentown PA only had the one question on "Leasing the Pennsylvania Turnpike to a private company in order to raise money for the repair and construction of highways and bridges".

Strong opposition was 35% to only 14% strong support for a concession. Somewhat support at 23% was greater than somewhat oppose at 14% but the balance was in the Turnpike Commission's favor with 37% support to 49% oppose a concession.

That's a Brimmeier/Rendell score of 1.3/1.

The question isn't quite accurate in that the Governor's proposal is to use a concession fee to provide an annuity for transportation generally of $1.7b or so in perpetuity. The alternative might be increases in taxes and fees. People might answer differently if presented that way.

see http://www.mcall.com/media/acrobat/2007-05/30052368.pdf

Quinnipiac poll

The most extensive opinion survey we'll bet will never get a mention on the Turnpike Commission's website. From the Quinnipiac University Polling Institue based in Hamden CT it asks four Turnpike questions. It has the larger sample - 1,318 Pennsylvanians and was polled most recently May 22 to 28.

It's worded differently in that it says there would be state control over toll increases and maintenance schedules in a concession. Saying this it finds 44% in favor of "lease" and 42% against, 1.05 Rendell/Brimmeier.

Interestingly it shows something of a partisan divide with Democrats in favor (53/36), and Republicans against (37/46) a concession - perhaps based on Gov Rendell being "our guy."

Independents are also opposed (36/49).

The trend isn't favorable to Rendell however. Rendell's plan showed slippage from the previous poll.

The second question throws in the estimated value of the concession. That increases support somewhat.

A third question shows a majority think a concessionaire would increase tolls significantly. We're not sure that means much. Do they think the Turnpike Commission would increase them significantly also? It doesn't tell us who they think would increase tolls the most.

Q4 suggests most people think maintenance would be about the same whoever was running the Turnpike, while 30% think a private company would do a better job and only 13% think the Turnpike Commission would maintain best. (Would they all be PTC employees? Didn't mean it - joke.)

That one's not so promising for the PTC.

Results of Quinnipiac poll in full:

30. Governor Rendell has proposed leasing the Pennsylvania turnpike to a private company, but keeping state control over toll increases and maintenance schedules. The money would be used to pay for highway and bridge construction. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Support 44% 37% 53% 36% 45% 44%
Oppose 42 46 36 49 44 40
DK/NA 14 17 11 15 11 16


Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Support 41% 46% 42% 45% 49% 44% 45%
Oppose 37 37 45 46 38 42 43
DK/NA 22 17 13 9 14 14 12


TREND: Governor Rendell has proposed leasing the Pennsylvania turnpike to a private company, but keeping state control over toll increases and maintenance schedules.The money would be used to pay for highway and bridge construction. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

May 30 Mar 28
2007 2007


Support 44 49
Oppose 42 41
DK/NA 14 10


31. Governor Rendell says that leasing the turnpike would result in an upfront payment of about 12 - 18 billion dollars by the company leasing the turnpike. He says the state could invest that money and earn nearly one billion dollars a year in interest to be spent on roads and bridges. Does that make you more likely to support leasing the turnpike, less likely, or doesn't it affect your view?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
More likely 38% 34% 42% 33% 36% 39%
Less likely 15 16 13 19 16 14
Doesn't affect view 40 43 38 42 42 39
DK/NA 7 7 6 6 6 8


Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
More likely 35% 39% 34% 39% 37% 38% 39%
Less likely 16 19 18 15 13 14 14
Doesn't affect view 37 33 43 40 44 40 42
DK/NA 12 8 4 6 6 8 6

33. Do you think leasing the turnpike to a private company would result in significant toll increases or don't you think so?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 54% 51% 57% 53% 57% 50%
No 30 31 30 31 29 31
DK/NA 16 18 14 16 13 19


Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Yes 44% 63% 62% 61% 51% 51% 47%
No 36 22 28 21 33 34 36
DK/NA 20 14 11 18 16 16 16

34. Do you think a private company would do a better job maintaining the turnpike than the state government does now, a worse job, or about the same?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Better 30% 34% 26% 29% 33% 26%
Worse 13 10 12 20 5 11
About the same 50 49 54 45 47 53
DK/NA 8 8 8 6 5 10

Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl
Better 33% 22% 29% 27% 33% 30% 32%
Worse 8 16 15 15 11 15 12
About the same 47 56 49 50 51 47 50
DK/NA 12 6 7 9 4 8 7



see http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1069

I-80 tolling supported

The Muhlenberg College Institute poll asked if people supported tolling of presently free I-80. That has been proposed by the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission though those questioned weren't told that.

There is 55% support for tolls on I-80 to 36% opposition, rather giving the lie to the notion that people will never support tolls on a free road. Strong opposition to I-80 tolls at 25% is slightly greater than strong support for tolls at 22%.

Ob & Faz headlined as PA pols

NOTE to Turnpike Commission website guys: Yah screwed up yah headline. Happens to the best of us, so don't feel bad. Left side, under FEATURED ARTICLE headline should read "US House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee" not "PA House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee." It's all about US Congressmen Jim Ob and Pete Faz and their promise to "undo" state toll concessions they consider not in the public interest. US pols not PA pols, guys.

LATE NOTE: A bunch of emails and phone calls failed to get anything on the truckers poll. However subsequent to publishing this we were contacted by the PMTA and by the polling company they employed and have just been given details of the poll. We'll revise this section. TOLLROADSnews 2007-06-02]

TOLLROADSnews 2007-05-30